What could Tesla’s robotaxi business in the US be worth? This cockpit starts with what one robotaxi earns and costs, scales that up to a fleet, and puts a value on it today that you can compare with Tesla’s share price. Move the sliders to test your own view. The sections further down show what matters most, how wide the range of outcomes is, and how the model works. Built on the Laniakea Research robotaxi economics report.
This interactive cockpit models Tesla's robotaxi (Cybercab) business as it could look once a large fleet is in place (default 2040). It builds up the profit of a single robotaxi from its costs, fares and utilization, scales that to a fleet sized as a share of the 300 largest US urban areas, applies a terminal P/E multiple, and discounts the result back to a Present Value (PV). Use the sliders to stress-test the assumptions, see which ones move the valuation most in the Tornado chart, and compare the PV with Tesla's current market capitalization. It is built on the Laniakea Research robotaxi economics report and its financial model.
Each type sets the vehicle cost, battery, efficiency, maintenance, insurance and electricity assumptions of the research report; the remote-operator ratio, fare, market share, timing, operating hours and valuation inputs stay as you set them. The colored stretch on each slider track shows how far it sits from the base case: green raises the valuation, red lowers it, deeper colors mean a bigger effect.
How much of Tesla’s value should robotaxis explain?
Each bar shows how far the value today moves when one assumption is set lower or higher, with everything else unchanged. Red is the downside, green the upside. The longer the bar, the more that assumption matters.
Impact of moving each input to a low and a high value (others at their current setting) on the PV valuation ($ Trillions). Bars show the downside in red and the upside in green relative to the current case; the range used for each input is in its label. The dashed line marks Tesla's current market cap.
Everything above rests on what a single vehicle earns. These figures are for one Cybercab robotaxi over a full year at your current settings, before any fleet-level scaling.
One day of the whole fleet at your current settings. Demand follows a typical daily pattern (morning and evening peaks) that averages out to your operating hours. The totals at the end of the day are exactly the model's per-car figures times the fleet, so the counters reconcile with the unit economics above. Costs that depend on driving (electricity, maintenance, taxes, depreciation, remote operators) follow the miles; insurance and the charging and cleaning stations accrue evenly through the day, so profit dips slightly below zero in the quiet early hours.
Cities are placed on a rollout that follows Tesla's current plans: the six driverless cities that are live today, the cities Tesla has named next, then the remaining large US urban areas in order of size, ending with the full fleet in your chosen year. Fleets inside a city grow slowly at first and faster later. Everything before today is reported; everything after is an assumption of this model, not a Tesla commitment. The map draws the 58 largest areas, each dot stands for a group of cars, and the dots share the simulation's clock. Hover or tap a city for details.
Nobody knows the exact numbers, so the model runs 10,000 scenarios, each with slightly different assumptions around your settings. The chart shows how often each value came up: red bars are below today’s market value, green bars above it. Switch on the Advanced view to see and change the ranges.
Illustrative only. 10,000 simulated outcomes. Each draw picks the inputs from skewed ranges around your current slider settings, keeps related inputs consistent (a lower fare supports a higher share, costlier cars cost more to maintain), and treats the risk premium and the year as fixed at your slider values, because they already price in execution risk and timing. The spread reflects the assumed ranges below, not data. A draw in which the fleet loses money is counted as zero value. The chart's right edge is the 99th percentile; the last bar collects everything above it.